Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from March 9 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
A senior IRGC official criticized Iran’s removal of a missile from a launch pad last month as a “humiliating” capitulation to U.S. threats.
IRGC Air Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh appeared to discuss an incident last month in which Iran removed the Safir launch vehicle from a launchpad. He stated, “We prepared to launch… a rocket for civilian purposes, but some gentlemen sent the [rocket] back to the depot after a threat from America. This is humiliating behavior.” Hajizadeh warned that Iran’s “situation will deteriorate day by day” if it does not “change” its “strategy.” Hajizadeh’s comments complement a similar statement from ex-IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei criticizing President Hassan Rouhani’s stance towards President Donald Trump’s administration as “weak.”
Citations & Links
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) called for additional support to hold the frontline against the al Houthi-Saleh faction in al Bayda.
It blamed American counterterrorism operations for the degradation of its forces on the Qayfa front in al Bayda, describing American actions as targeting the Sunni in support of the al Houthis. AQAP’s attempt to rally support to the frontline is consistent with the Critical Threats Project’s assessment that the concentration of U.S. airstrikes against AQAP could shift the momentum to the al Houthi-Saleh forces in central Yemen. AQAP’s narrative that the United States is allied with the al Houthis against the Sunnis may gain traction should the al Houthi-Saleh forces make significant advances.
Citations & Links
Expanded U.S. military involvement could strengthen African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) efforts to combat al Shabaab and build Somali security capabilities.
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) is pushing to extend the AMISOM withdrawal schedule until 2019 to ensure an effective transition to independent Somali security forces. AFRICOM Commander General Thomas Waldhauser recommended that AFRICOM expand its supporting role in ongoing operations, shifting away from the current role that prioritizes long-term train, advise, and assist objectives. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
Citations & Links
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) will prioritize building partner capacity to combat threats throughout Africa.
AFRICOM Commander General Thomas Waldhauser outlined AFRICOM’s 2017 Force Posture before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Waldhauser emphasized the need to coordinate with the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to defeat Boko Haram in Nigeria and support French and UN forces to defeat al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Mali. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
Citations & Links
Al Qaeda is expanding its support base in Libya in the context of the civil war.
The al Qaeda network supports elements of a militia coalition, which includes the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) and other groups, that seized two key oil ports from the Libyan National Army (LNA) in central Libya on March 3. Members of al Qaeda’s human network likely played a role in coordinating the operation. Al Qaeda-linked individuals lead elements of the coalition, and an al Qaeda-affiliated group in Derna may have acted in support to fix LNA forces in northeastern Libya and prevent them from reinforcing the oil crescent front. The BDB turned over the ports to forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), the current U.S. counterterrorism partner in Libya, in what may be a bid by the al Qaeda-linked militias to acquire legitimacy. (Related reading: Ignoring History: Al Qaeda’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
