Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: February 21, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: M23 captured two villages east of the RN2 in Lubero district in northern North Kivu Province in an attempt to flank Congolese army (FARDC) positions in the district capital, Lubero town. The Burundian army retreated into a defensive posture and accelerated the withdrawal of its troops from South Kivu. M23 advanced through rural localities to open a second front against a key FARDC position in Walikale district of western North Kivu. The United States sanctioned a Rwandan official and an M23 official central who are key to M23 military and economic operations. East African Community (EAC) defense ministers met to discuss peace initiatives ahead of a joint EAC-Southern African Development Community defense ministers meeting next week.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23 rebels captured Katondi village, 3 miles north of Kitsombiro on the RN2 road in Lubero district, and advanced roughly 7 miles east to seize the villages of Kasima and Kipese on February 20.[1] M23’s advance through Kipese opens two routes toward Butembo that bypass FARDC positions on the RN2 road and in Lubero town to the west of M23’s advance.[2] M23’s flanking maneuver around Lubero town also allows the rebel group to avoid Ugandan troops who are stationed in the town.[3] Local media reported that Ugandan troops are stationed in Lubero strictly to secure the town from disorderly FARDC soldiers, however, and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said on February 21 that Uganda’s military presence in the eastern DRC “has nothing to do” with fighting M23.[4]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

French media reported that the Burundian army (FDNB) is “accelerating” its withdrawal from South Kivu and “adopting only a defensive position on its own territory” at the DRC-Burundi border on February 21 as M23 advances towards Uvira town.[5] The French news outlet Le Monde quoted a senior Burundian military officer who criticized FARDC as “totally disorganized” and said that M23’s advance in the Rusizi plain in South Kivu put pressure on FNDB’s supply lines and risked “trapping” Burundian soldiers in the Rusizi Plain.[6]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 forces advanced westward roughly 16 miles from Rusamambu village in the Walikale district of western North Kivu and captured Bukumbirwa and Ngerere localities near the Kisimba-Ikobo Primate Reserve after clashing with Wazalendo militia fighters on February 21.[7] M23's advance has opened a second route toward the FARDC base in Pinga town, which lies roughly 18 miles south of Bukumbirwa along a forested route through the primate reserve.[8] Pinga is operationally significant as it hosts an airstrip, an army base, and a hospital and would be a staging ground for M23 expansion deeper into mineral-rich Walikale territory or Maniema, South Kivu, and Tshopo provinces.[9] M23 advanced within 6 miles of Pinga from the east along the RP1030 road in the Masisi district in October 2024 and shelled the town but failed to capture it.[10]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The United States sanctioned retired Rwandan General James Kabarebe and M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka Kingston on February 20.[11] The United States said that Kabarebe is a liaison to M23, orchestrates Rwandan military support for the group, and manages M23 mineral revenue from his official position as Rwanda’s Minister of State for Regional Integration.[12] The United States also sanctioned two businesses affiliated with Kanyuka.[13] DRC communications minister Patrick Muyaya said the US sanctions are only “the first step” to pressure Rwanda to withdraw its troops from the eastern DRC.[14] The Rwandan foreign ministry said that the sanctions were “unjustified” and represented “unwarranted external interference” in the search for a peace agreement within various multilateral initiatives.[15]

East African Community (EAC) defense ministers from seven member states met in Nairobi, Kenya on February 21 to discuss implementing the provisions from the joint EAC-Southern African Development Community (SADC) communiqué in mid-February.[16] The Rwandan Ministry of Defense said in a statement on February 21 that the joint EAC-SADC defense ministers meeting is scheduled for February 24 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.[17]