Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 12, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: M23 continued its advance southward in central South Kivu in a possible attempt to bypass Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army positions on the RN5 road and capture Uvira. M23 captured several villages in northern Masisi district. Angola announced that the DRC and M23 will engage in direct negotiations in the Angolan capital of Luanda next week. The EU is expected to move ahead on a proposed sanctions package on Rwanda for supporting M23 during an upcoming EU foreign ministers meeting.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 continued its advance southward in central South Kivu in a possible attempt to bypass Congolese army (FARDC) and Burundian army positions on the RN5 road and capture Uvira. Congolese journalists on social media reported that M23 advanced roughly 25 miles south from Lwanguku town in Walungu district through a forested route to seize at least six villages in Uvira district on March 12.[1] M23 has now advanced to roughly 20 miles from Uvira town without engaging Burundian and FARDC positions on the RN5.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 captured several villages in the northern Masisi district of North Kivu. Congolese news outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 reinforced its troops from Mweso town along the RP1030 road and dislodged FARDC and pro-Congolese government fighters from their positions in Bibwe, Luhanga, and Nyange towns—located about 15 miles southeast of Pinga—on March 12.[2] Pro-Congolese government fighters previously attacked M23 positions in the nearby village of Kivuye on March 7 but failed to dislodge the rebels from the area.[3]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Angola announced plans to facilitate direct dialogue between M23 and the DRC. Angolan President João Lourenço announced after a meeting with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi on March 11 that the DRC and M23 will directly negotiate in peace talks in the Angola capital of Luanda on March 18.[4] An M23 spokesperson told Reuters that the group plans to attend the talks.[5] Angola has been mediating peace talks known as the Luanda process between the DRC and Rwanda, M23’s primary patron, since 2022.

The EU is expected to move ahead on a proposed sanctions package on Rwanda for supporting M23 during an upcoming EU foreign ministers meeting after Luxembourg dropped its objections. Luxembourg’s foreign minister announced that Luxembourg will not veto the proposed sanctions during the March 17 meeting.[6] Luxembourg previously vetoed sanctions on Rwanda on February 24 and said it preferred to wait for the outcome of a joint EAC-SADC meeting on February 28, which was later postponed.[7] Luxembourg’s foreign minister had said prior to the joint summit’s cancellation that Luxembourg would vote for a sanctions package on Rwanda if the summit failed to produce concrete developments.[8]