Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 19, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The DRC and Rwanda agreed to a ceasefire deal during a trilateral meeting with Qatar. M23 broke through the Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militia positions on the RP529 road and  captured the Walikale district capital in western North Kivu. The Wall Street Journal reported that in early February DRC President Félix Tshisekedi offered US President Donald Trump access to the DRC’s critical minerals in exchange for a “formal security pact” to help fight M23.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Pro-Congolese governm ent militias attacked M23-aligned rebels in several villages in an area that straddles the Mwenga and Fizi districts in southern South Kivu. Pro-Congolese government militias attacked M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebel positions in the  —located 88 miles from Uvira—and several surrounding villages in Mwenga district on March 19.[i] The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that the pro-Congolese government militias also clashed with M23-aligned rebels in Muliza and Kakangara localities near Minembwe town on March 19.[ii] Pro-Congolese government forces have clashed with M23-aligned rebels in Minembwe town and nearby areas since late February.[iii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 broke through the Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militia positions on the RP529 road and  captured Walikale’s district capital town in western North Kivu. M23 advanced 32 miles from Mpofi to seize Walikale town after clashing with FARDC and allied militias on March 19.[iv] M23’s advance undoes FARDC and allied militias counterattacks that had briefly halted M23’s advance on Walikale town on March 17 and pushed M23 18 miles east to Mpofi.[v] M23’s  control of Walikale town sets conditions for the group to advance to Lubutu town and its nearby airport—located about 125 west along the RN3—and the DRC’s fourth largest city, Kisangani, which is more than 250 miles northwest.[vi]

The pro-Congolese government coalition continued to attack M23’s eastern flank along the RP529 as M23 forces moved southwest towards Walikale. A Congolese media outlet reported on social media that FARDC and allied militias attacked M23 positions in Kembe—located 7 miles east from Mpofi —on March 19.[vii] Pro-Congolese government militias previously attacked M23 reinforcements in Kembe on March 18 that were heading to Mpofi from Kibua—a village 20 miles east of Mpofi.[viii] Congolese media outlets previously reported that M23 controlled only the 20 miles between Kibua and Mpofi and was sandwiched between FARDC forces coming from Walikale town to the west and allied militias that backfilled M23’s vacant positions in Nyabiondo—the gateway town to Walikale located 34 miles east of Kibua—as M23 moved west on March 18.[ix]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The DRC and Rwanda agreed to an “immediate and unconditional” ceasefire during a trilateral meeting between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani on March 18.[x] The three countries released a joint communiqué that said that the DRC and Rwanda committed to continue informal discussions under the auspices of Qatar and reaffirmed their commitments to the Angolan-mediated Luanda process and the Kenyan-mediated Nairobi process.[xi] A diplomatic source told Reuters that the Qatari-mediated discussions were “informal” and “ not meant to replace any existing [mediation] efforts.”[xii] The meeting came after foreign ministers from the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) met to outline a “roadmap” to implement a ceasefire, secure M23-held areas, and strengthen multilateral forces’ and FARDC’s fighting capacity on March 17.[xiii]

The Wall Street Journal reported that in early February Tshisekedi offered US President Donald Trump  access to the DRC’s critical minerals in exchange for a “formal security pact” to help fight Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.[xiv] The details of the proposed deal remain undisclosed, and the White House declined to release details on the negotiations.[xv] The outlet reported that Tshisekedi has also been negotiating a potential deal with Erik Prince—a “Trump ally” and founder of the private security contractor Constellis, formerly called Blackwater—for Prince to provide security to help the DRC collect taxes and limit illegal  monetary transfers from mining operations in the eastern DRC.[xvi]