Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: February 28, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community’s (SADC) indefinitely postponed a joint summit of the blocs’ foreign ministers on February 28 that intended to approve measures to advance peace talks and implement a ceasefire. M23 continues to advance governance efforts in North and South Kivu province. Congolese officials and M23 accuse each other of orchestrating the February 27 bombings in Bukavu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23’s newly appointed Governor’s Delegate held a meeting with the residents of Kipese commune on February 28 as the rebels continue efforts to increase their administrative control and legitimacy.[1] M23 has lacked the law enforcement personnel to fully secure Bukavu and Goma and has sought to absorb FARDC and local police units in both cities to address spikes in homicide, looting, and other crime.[2] M23 captured the commune, located 9 miles southeast of the district capital Lubero town, on February 20.[3]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and M23 are presenting conflicting narratives of the February 27 bombings in Bukavu. Two successive explosions occurred near the speaking podium as Corneille Nangaa—the leader of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) —finished speaking at a public rally.[4] The attack failed to injure AFC-M23 senior personnel but killed at least 11 people and caused widespread tension in the city.[5] AFC-M23-AFC accused DRC President Félix Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate Nangaa in the immediate aftermath of the attack.[6] M23‘s President Bertrand Bisimwa accused Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi of using the bombings to punish Bukavu‘s population for “warmly welcoming” M23 on February 28.[7] Congolese army (FARDC) spokesman Major General Sylvain Ekenge claimed that M23 committed the bombings to retaliate against civilians for demanding that M23 leave the city on February 28.[8] There were no reported anti-M23 protests in Bukavu on February 27, and Ekenge’s claims mirror other Congolese government statements implying that the attack was a false flag.[9]

M23 appointed officialsthe post of governor and vice-governor for South Kivu province on February 28.[10] M23’s Governor of South Kivu, Emmanuel Birato Rwihimba, previously ran as a national deputy for Kabare territory in South Kivu during the 2023 elections and was an executive in former DRC President Joseph Kabila’s People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD).[11]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) indefinitely postponed a joint summit of the blocs’ foreign ministers on February 28 that intended to finalize the details of an EAC-SADC ceasefire plan.[12] French state media outlet Radio France Internationale and Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that the Congolese and Rwandan delegations never received official invitations from the Zimbabwean Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the summit in Harare.[13] The EAC-SADC ministers were intended to finalize the merging of the Kenya-mediated Nairobi process and the Angola-mediated Luanda process after the EAC-SADC defense ministers named three new mediators— former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obansanjo, and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn—during a February 24 meeting.[14] The February 28 meeting also intended to consider measures proposed measures to enforce a ceasefire in the eastern DRC, including the deployment of a joint EAC-SADC force to secure M23 occupied areas.[15]

The delayed summit will impact internal EU debates on heightened sanctions against Rwanda. Luxembourg vetoed sanctions against Rwanda on February 24 stating it preferred to wait for the outcomes of the February 28 meeting.[16] Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister expressed on February 28 prior to the cancellation that Luxembourg would support the sanctions package if concrete developments didn’t occur.[17]