Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 10, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: M23 made significant advances toward Walikale district in western North Kivu after capturing a key gateway town along the main road in the area. At least three pro-Congolese government militia factions in North Kivu defected to M23, dealing a “major blow” to the Congolese army’s (FARDC’s) efforts to contain M23’s advance in northern North Kivu. The US Department of State said that the US is “open to discussing” a minerals partnership with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The DRC government put a bounty on senior M23 officials.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

At least three pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militia factions in North Kivu defected to join M23’s political alliance, the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC). The Mai-Mai Kabidon (FPP-AP), elements of the Mai-Mai Kifuafua, and the Mapenzi faction of the Nduma Defense of Congo-Renovated (NDC-R/M) created a coalition and joined the AFC on March 9.[1] The local media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported on March 9 that elements of the new coalition were moving north from their positions in central and southern North Kivu towards Kasugho village, about 28 miles west of the Lubero district capital, Lubero town, on March 9.[2] M23 has been attempting to flank FARDC positions in Lubero town since late February.[3] M23 captured Kasugho on March 2 before it withdrew on March 7 and headed toward Bunyatenge, a gold mining area that is about a 6-hour walk from Kasugho.[4]

Congolese media said the defection of FPP-AP fighters to M23 is a “major blow” to the Congolese army’s (FARDC’s) efforts to contain M23. Congolese media described FPP-AP as “one of the best structured and influential armed groups in North Kivu” who had deployed “hundreds of fighters” to “dozens of villages” in the Lubero district to block M23’s advance towards Lubero, Butembo, and Beni.[5] The Congolese news outlet Actualite.cd said that FPP-AP maintains a heavy presence in northwestern Lubero district, especially in the gold mining town of Maguredjipa, which is 73 miles northwest of Lubero town and borders the neighboring Tshopo province.[6] The outlet quoted a local researcher who said that FPP-AP’s inclusion into M23’s alliance structure would allow M23 to advance unimpeded from Kasugho to Manguredjipa via Bunyatenge.[7]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

FARDC and Wazalendo militia fighters clashed with M23-aligned and Rwandan-backed Twirwaneho and RED Tabara rebels in several villages near Minembwe town on March 10.[8] FARDC launched air attacks on M23-aligned Twirwaneho positions in Minembwe town on March 10. Congolese media reported that FARDC drones and a FARDC fighter jet bombed Twirwaneho positions at Minembwe’s airfield and in the nearby commune of Kiziba.[9] Pro-Congolese government forces have been attacking M23-aligned rebel positions in Minembwe and nearby areas since early March after Twirwaneho captured several villages—including Minembwe—in late February.[10]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 captured a key crossroads town that will allow the group to consolidate control over Masisi district and advance toward Walikale district in western North Kivu. M23 launched a counterattack that broke through pro-Congolese government positions near Masisi’s district capital and ended in the capture of Nyabiondo and several nearby villages on March 9.[11] FARDC and pro-Congolese government militia had attacked villages near Masisi town since March 6 in an attempt to retake the district capital and block M23’s westward advance.[12] M23’s capture of Nyabiondo denies pro-Congolese government forces road access to Masisi, cutting off any remaining FARDC or allied militia forces on the RP529 or south of Masisi town.[13] French and local media reported that M23’s control of Nyabiondo will allow the group to advance along the RP529 road towards Kashebere, a gateway town to the mineral-rich Walikale district located about 50 miles from Walikale’s district capital.[14]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

The US Department of State said that the US is “open to discussing” a minerals partnership with the DRC on March 9.[15] DRC President Félix Tshisekedi had publicly offered the United States and the European Union “a stake in his country’s vast mineral wealth” and said that the Trump administration could benefit from a “stream of strategic minerals from Congo” in an interview with The New York Times on February 22.[16] DRC government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya said officials from the DRC and the US have had daily discussions in recent days over a potential mineral deal.[17] The State Department’s statement coincided with a media report that US President Donald Trump will appoint Senior Advisor for Arab Affairs Massad Boulos as US Special Envoy to the Great Lakes region.[18]

The DRC government put a bounty on senior M23 officials. The Congolese Ministry of Justice announced on March 7 that it would reward anyone with information on Corneille Nangaa, leader of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), M23 commander Sultani Makenga, and M23 president Betrand Bisimwa.[19]