Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 11, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

Follow CTP on Twitter, LinkedIn, and BlueSky for daily updates.

Read CTP’s latest analysis on the war in the eastern DRC in the weekly Africa File here. To receive the Africa File via email, please subscribe here.

Key Takeaway: M23 advanced south of the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu to a key area that links to several other fronts in South Kivu. M23 continued its offensive into the mineral-rich Walikale district of western North Kivu. M23 attempted to take a key district capital along the RN2 road toward a gold mining town in central south Kivu. An unspecified number of fighters from two militia groups denounced and denied recent defections from their groups to M23.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

An unspecified number of fighters from Mai Mai Kabidon (FPP-AP) and the Mai Mai Kifuafua denounced recent defections from their groups to M23 on March 10. Two videos circulating on social media show a group of nearly 50 fighters and a second group of around 15 fighters condemning the defections.[1] The Mai Mai Kifuafua group released a statement denying that some of its fighters had joined M23.[2] Congolese media reported that FPP-AP created a coalition with elements of the Mai-Mai Kifuafua and the Mapenzi faction of the Nduma Defense of Congo-Renovated (NDC-R/M) and joined the M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), on March 9.[3] Congolese media outlets said the defection of the FPP-AP was a “major blow” to the Congolese army’s (FARDC’s) efforts to contain M23 as it was “one of the best structured and influential armed groups in North Kivu.”[4] FARDC denounced the new coalition in a press release on March 11, claiming the group “was created to defend the cause of [Rwandan President] Paul Kagame.”[5]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 advanced south of the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu to a key area that links to several other fronts in South Kivu. The rebels advanced 18 miles southward from Nyangezi village and captured several villages—including the capital of the Kaziba chiefdom, Lwanguku—from pro-Congolese government forces and allied Burundian troops on March 10.[6] Congolese media outlets reported that M23’s control of Kaziba chiefdom would allow M23 to link its support zones with the Rwandan-backed and M23-aligned Twirwaneho and RED Tabara militias to an area about 30 miles south of Kaziba chiefdom near Minembwe town in the highlands of Fizi district.[7] M23 has condemned FARDC’s recent military activities near Minembwe town and said that it would act if they persisted.[8] Congolese media also said that M23’s control of Kaziba would allow the group to bypass or attack Burundian soldiers deployed on the RN5 in the Rusizi Plain along the Burundi-DRC border to reach Uvira.[9] CTP previously assessed that Burundi and Rwanda likely agreed to deconflict in this area, however, after M23 voluntarily withdrew from key positions along the road back to the Rwandan border in late February, and Burundian troops and allied Congolese militias assumed control over the area.[10]

FARDC and allied militias attempted to dislodge the Twirwaneho and RED Tabara militias from several villages near Minembwe town on March 10.[11] Congolese media outlet Radio Okapi reported that FARDC killed at least 10 M23-aligned fighters in airstrikes on the Minembwe airfield on March 10.[12] Pro-Congolese government forces have been attacking M23-aligned rebel positions in Minembwe and nearby areas since early March after Twirwaneho captured several villages—including Minembwe—in late February.[13]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 continued its offensive into mineral-rich Walikale district. A pro-M23 account claimed on social media that M23 captured Kashebere, a gateway town to Walikale less than 10 miles west of Nyabiondo along the RP529 road, on March 11.[14] The Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that M23 clashed with FARDC and allied militia in Lwibo, about 5 miles north of Nyabiondo, on March 11.[15] M23 previously took control of Nyabiondo and several nearby villages on the RP529 on March 9 after launching a counterattack on pro-Congolese government positions near Masisi town.[16]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 attempted to take a key district capital along the RN2 road toward the gold mining town of Kamituga in central south Kivu. M23 advanced 22 miles southward from Kalama along the RN2 road to Mwenga town, Mwenga’s district capital, on March 11.[17] Pro-FARDC accounts on social media reported that M23 has suffered “heavy losses” from pro-Congolese government forces that repelled M23’s advance.[18]

Major Political Developments

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) announced it will hold a virtual joint summit with heads of state to discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC on March 13.[19] The heads of state will review the recommendations from a prior SADC meeting on renewing or ending the SADC’s force deployment to the eastern DRC during the March 13 summit.[20]