Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 31, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: Representatives from the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 participated in Qatari-mediated peace talks in Doha, Qatar’s capital, but it remains unclear whether M23 participated in direct negotiations with the DRC government. The Ugandan army said that it is considering withdrawing its troops from Lubero town in northern North Kivu. M23 elements advanced from central South Kivu to link with M23-aligned rebels in southern South Kivu. M23 repelled numerous FARDC and Wazalendo attacks in Walikale town and the surrounding area in western North Kivu.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

The Ugandan army (UPDF) said that it is considering withdrawing its troops from Lubero town in northern North Kivu. UPDF spokesperson Chris Magezi said on social media on March 30 that the UPDF could redeploy troops “in the coming days” from Lubero town to pursue Islamic State Central Africa Province militants—known locally as Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)—who have shifted their area of operations and “taken flight” from northern North Kivu.[1] The UPDF and the Congolese army (FARDC) have been conducting joint military operations against the ADF since 2021.[2] Magezi’s announcement came after FARDC and UPDF officials met on March 27 and 28 to significantly expand Operation Shujaa’s area of operations into northern Ituri province to combat another rebel group—Cooperative pour le developpement du Congo (CODECO).[3] The UPDF has reportedly blocked M23’s northward advance and attempts to flank FARDC positions in Lubero town since late February.[4]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 elements advanced south from Uvira district in central South Kivu to the Fizi highlands in southern South Kivu and joined forces with M23-aligned rebels. Congolese media reported on March 31 that M23 elements arrived in Minembwe town in Fizi district, where M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels have regularly clashed with pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias since late February.[5] The DRC interior minister claimed that there were members of the Rwandan army (RDF) among the M23 reinforcements.[6] Twirwaneho is part of M23’s wider political coalition, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), and the UN reported in December 2024 that Twirwaneho had ties to Rwanda and had become an “AFC/M23 proxy” in South Kivu.[7] M23 condemned FARDC bombing campaigns against Twirwaneho in late February and threatened to advance southward on Minembwe.[8] M23 set conditions to infiltrate the Minembwe area when it temporarily captured the Kaziba chiefdom in southern Walungu district in early March, opening a route to the Minembwe area via forested paths in the Uvira and Fizi highlands.[9] Burundian troops and pro-Congolese government militia fighters recaptured Kaziba chiefdom in late March, and independent Congolese journalist Byobe Malenga reported on March 30 that FARDC redeployed troops to Kaziba chiefdom in central South Kivu.[10]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 repelled numerous FARDC and Wazalendo attacks in Walikale town and the surrounding area on the RN3 road in western North Kivu on March 30. The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Wazalendo militias attacked M23 positions in Walikale town but failed to dislodge the rebels from the town.[11] The outlet reported that Wazalendo militias also attacked M23 positions four miles southeast and four miles northwest of the town but withdrew after clashing with the rebels.[12] Pro-Congolese government forces began launching counterattacks to isolate Walikale town in late March and set conditions to retake the district capital after M23 initially captured it on March 20.[13]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Representatives from the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 participated in Qatari-mediated peace talks in Doha, Qatar’s capital. Reuters reported that Qatar mediated a second round of discussions on March 30 between senior Congolese and Rwandan officials.[14] DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame agreed to a ceasefire deal during an initial round of talks on March 18.[15]

None of the parties have clarified if the DRC and M23 engaged in direct talks. French media had reported that M23 representatives—including M23 “President” Bertrand Bisimwa—have been participating in peace talks involving M23 rebels in Doha since March 27.[16] Reuters reported on March 28 that M23 representatives “met separately with Qatari mediators,” citing both DRC and M23 officials.[17] The Congolese news outlet Le Potentiel reported on March 31 that the DRC and M23 representatives— including Bisimwa and the Congolese foreign minister—participated in direct discussions mediated by Qatar, however, and agreed to “continue negotiations and establish a follow-up committee to ensure the continuity of dialogue.”[18] The outlet reported that the DRC rejected M23’s demands for reintegration into FARDC and that M23 requested security guarantees and an amnesty for M23 fighters and high-ranking officials before agreeing to withdraw from occupied areas.[19] The outlet said that Qatar’s foreign ministry pledged to mediate future talks and would help facilitate the establishment of a “neutral observer force” to implement any conclusions.[20]