Congo War Security Review

Data Cutoff: March 24, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: M23 announced that it would withdraw from Walikale town in western North Kivu, but M23 has yet to vacate the district capital and has accused the Congolese army (FARDC) of failing to demilitarize despite no reported clashes. Congolese and international media outlets have speculated that M23 may continue to advance westward from Walikale town. Angola announced that it would step down as peace mediator for the conflict in the eastern DRC in what Congolese media described as a “major blow” to regional efforts to facilitate a peace agreement. The Ugandan military chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba said on social media that the Ugandan army would not oppose a potential M23 offensive on Kisangani, the DRC’s fourth-largest city.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 repelled pro-Congolese government militia attacks on two villages near the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. Pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias clashed with M23 in Nyatende and Nyangezi—located 6 miles and 15 miles from Bukavu, respectively—on March 23.[1] M23 previously repelled Wazalendo attacks in the area on March 17.[2]

Wazalendo militias clashed with two M23-aligned rebel groups in an area that straddles the Fizi and Mwenga districts in southern South Kivu. Congolese media reported that Wazalendos clashed with Twirwaneho and RED Tabara rebels in three villages near Minembwe town on March 23.[3] These factions previously clashed in several villages near Minembwe between March 19 and March 21.[4]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

M23 announced that it would withdraw from Walikale town in western North Kivu, but M23 has yet to vacate the district capital and has accused the Congolese army (FARDC) of failing to demilitarize despite no reported clashes. M23 captured Walikale town on March 19, and FARDC and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias launched air and ground counterattacks on M23 positions in Walikale town on March 21 and 22.[5] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka announced on March 22 that M23 would “reposition its forces” from Walikale town to “foster conditions conducive to political dialogue.”[6] Reuters reported on March 22 that M23 intended to withdraw from Walikale town and quoted a senior M23 official who said that the move signaled the group’s desire to “give peace a chance.”[7] The DRC, Rwanda, and Qatar all released statements supporting M23’s announcement.[8]

M23 forces still control key infrastructure points in Walikale town as of March 24, however, and has accused FARDC of violating its side of the agreement despite no reported clashes in recent days.[9] Kanyuka warned in his initial statement on March 22 that M23 would reverse its decision to withdraw if FARDC did not cease air and ground attacks on M23 positions.[10] Senior FARDC and M23 officials reportedly agreed to demilitarize Walikale town and the surrounding area as part of a ceasefire.[11] Kanyuka accused FARDC of not withdrawing its attack drones from Walikale on March 24, forcing M23 to delay the “repositioning” of its forces around Walikale.[12]

Congolese and international media outlets have speculated that M23 may continue to advance westward. French media cited “military sources” within FARDC on March 22 who speculated that M23 had “no intention” to withdraw from Walikale and likely planned to “advance toward Kisangani.”[13] Kisangani is more than 250 miles northwest of Walikale town along the RN3 and is the DRC’s fourth largest city.[14] Reuters reported on March 22 that an M23 fighter told Walikale residents on March 20 that M23 would keep “a small group of soldiers there to provide security” as other M23 forces “continue all the way to Kinshasa.”[15] Congolese media reported on March 24 that FARDC reinforced its positions in Boboro, 15 miles northwest of Walikale along the RN3.[16] Congolese media reported on March 24 that M23 split off into three contingents that headed northwest of Walikale toward Boboro, directly west from Walikale toward Ntoto, and southeast from Walikale along the RN3 toward Itebero.[17]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Angola announced that it would step down as peace mediator for the conflict in the eastern DRC in what Congolese media described as a “major blow” to regional efforts to facilitate a peace agreement between the DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.[18] Angolan President João Lourenço announced on social media on March 24 that he would formally abdicate his role as mediator and appoint another African head of state to mediate the conflict “in the coming days” in order to free Angola to “devote itself more” to the African Union’s (AU) larger priorities.[19] Lourenço had previously told French media that he would “pass the baton” to another African head of state in mid-February when Angola assumed the chairmanship of the AU but then announced that Angola would mediate between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in mid-March.[20] M23 withdrew from the planned negotiations after the EU sanctioned senior Rwandan and M23 officials on March 17.[21] Angola had been mediating peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda since 2022 under the Luanda process, which the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed to merge with the Kenyan-led Nairobi process between the Congolese government and armed groups in the eastern DRC in March 2024.[22] French media reported in mid-March that Lourenço would oversee the facilitators that the EAC and SADC appointed to finalize the merger.[23]

M23 canceled a UN monitoring team’s visit to M23-occupied areas on March 22.[24] M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka stated that the group suspended the UN team’s visit—scheduled to take place from March 23 to March 27—due to “last-minute emergencies.”[25] The UN experts were expected to investigate logistical concerns affecting humanitarian efforts in eastern DRC, including an assessment of the operability of the Goma airport—a key logistical hub for humanitarian operations in North Kivu and South Kivu—that M23 has claimed it wants to reopen but remains in inoperable disrepair since M23 captured Goma in late January.[26]

The Ugandan military chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba said on social media that the Ugandan army would not oppose a potential M23 offensive on Kisangani.[27] Kainerugaba said that M23 should “act quickly, otherwise we will do it ourselves... in a week.”[28] Kainerugaba’s comments came after he met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Rwandan’s army chief in Kigali on March 20.[29]