Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
Loading...
Loading...
These are the major events from May 2 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Yemen
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) frames its operations against Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen as in defense of innocent Muslims in order to gain popular support.Horn of Africa
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) may be preparing to exercise its new authority to conduct offensive strikes against al Shabaab.Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) frames its operations against Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen as in defense of innocent Muslims in order to gain popular support.
AQAP released a video criticizing reported illegal detentions by al Hizam forces and characterizing an AQAP attack as reprisal for the detentions. This narrative, combined with AQAP’s claim to fight al Houthi-Saleh forces in central Yemen, could increase its support among Yemenis in areas that lack access to government services. [Related reading: AQAP Expanding behind Yemen's Frontlines]
Citations & Links
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) may be preparing to exercise its new authority to conduct offensive strikes against al Shabaab.
U.S. military planners coordinated with NGOs and aid workers to reduce the risk of civilian casualties. U.S. AFRICOM commander General Thomas Waldhauser also met with Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo in Mogadishu to discuss efforts to counter al Shabaab. The Trump administration declared parts of Somalia an area of active hostilities and reduced operational restrictions on U.S. airstrikes in the country on March 30. U.S. military forces have not yet acted under the new rules of engagement. [Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?]
Citations & Links
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb-affiliated militants expanded their attack zone in western Mali.
Suspected Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) militants conducted a complex attack against a Malian army convoy in Segou region in west-central Mali. If confirmed, this attack would indicate that JNIM is expanding westward. The Macina Liberation Front, a JNIM affiliate that has operated in this area in the past, may have facilitated the attack. [Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat]
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed its first attack in Algeria since March 2016.
Citations & Links
Citations & Links
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar may participate in negotiations to solve the Libyan crisis, but major issues remain unresolved.
Haftar met Government of National Accord (GNA) head Fayez al Serraj for the first time since January 2016. The two leaders agreed on several amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement, including the abolition of an article that guarantees civilian control over the military. Haftar seeks to remain Commander in Chief of the Libyan Armed Forces. Haftar’s opponents will oppose this amendment in negotiations and possibly with force. [Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya.]
Citations & Links
These are the major events from May 1 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
West Africa
Militants with ties to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) may have planned to conduct attacks in Tunisia during the month of Ramadan, which begins in late May. The French military intervened to remove Salafi-jihadi militants from the Malian-Burkinabe border region after an unsuccessful Malian-Burkinabe effort.Militants with ties to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) may have planned to conduct attacks in Tunisia during the month of Ramadan, which begins in late May.
Tunisian security forces killed the reported commander of the AQIM-affiliated Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade during a raid in Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia. The cell may also have ties to ISIS. ISIS and AQIM operate in shared safe havens in western Tunisia. [Related reading: ISIS Signals Tunisian Presence with Bardo Museum Attack]
The French military intervened to remove Salafi-jihadi militants from the Malian-Burkinabe border region after an unsuccessful Malian-Burkinabe effort.
A French commando force with air support launched “Operation Bayard” against the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb-linked group Ansar al Islam in the Fhero forest region. French forces killed or captured approximately 20 Ansar al Islam militant during the operation. Ansar al Islam will likely withdraw to other support zones among the ethnic Fulani populations of northern Burkina Faso. [Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat]
Citations & Links
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab is pursuing multiple lines of effort to exercise control over populations in Somalia.
Al Shabaab militants claimed to distribute food aid to 300 families in El Bur, Galgudud region, central Somalia as part of a broader effort to capitalize on the government’s failure to deliver sufficient aid. An al Shabaab court ordered the stoning of a man accused of rape and murder in neighboring Hiraan region. Al Shabaab positions itself as an alternative source of governance in areas where the Somali Federal Government has limited reach. [Related reading: Al Shabaab’s Humanitarian Response]
Citations & Links
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continues to advance al Qaeda’s methodology of unifying Sunni ranks.
AQAP emir Qasim al Raymi stated in an April 30 interview that his militants fight alongside Salafi militias, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Sunni tribal forces against al Houthi-Saleh forces in order to facilitate unification. Nearly all of AQAP’s claimed attacks targeted al Houthi-Saleh forces in the past month. AQAP emphasizes its military operations against al Houthi-Saleh forces over attacking Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen in order to strengthen its Sunni tribal ties. (Related reading: AQAP Expanding behind Yemen's Frontlines)
Citations & Links
These are the major events from April 28 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) militants based in Libya may have entered Europe in support of the group’s larger plan to conduct terrorist attacks and destabilize the EU.
An Italian intelligence document stated that an unknown number of ISIS fighters may have infiltrated groups of injured Libyan National Army fighters who received medical treatment in European hospitals beginning in December 2015. ISIS and other Salafi-jihadi groups may use their support zones inside of Libya to facilitate attacks on Europe and neighboring states. [Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya.]
Citations & Links
President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi is marginalizing Emirati-backed Southern Movement leaders while the UAE and Russia pursue political negotiations with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
President Hadi removed the Minister of State and the governor of Aden, who are part of the Emirati patronage network in Yemen. Their removal sparked large protests in Aden. President Hadi likely removed these actors to consolidate power in his administration in an attempt to ensure that he will not be excluded from future negotiations. (Related reading: Yemen Crisis Situation Report)
