Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 5 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
The Libyan National Army (LNA) abandoned negotiations in southwestern Libya and resumed offensive operations in Misratan-controlled areas.
The LNA announced the start of its ground operations to take control of the Tamnahent airbase near Sebha from the Misratan Third Force and conducted airstrikes on the base. The LNA had promised the Misratan Third Force a safe passage out of Tamnahent on 22 MAR, and negotiations for the Third Force’s departure were ongoing. The Third Force’s takeover of the Sebha airbase just hours after the LNA took control over it on 03 MAR may have derailed the negotiations over control of Tamnahent. A LNA takeover of Tamnahent would tip the balance of power in southern and central Libya in the LNA’s favor but would spark backlash from anti-LNA militias in the area. (Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya)
Citations & Links
Former members of several ethnically Fulani vigilante groups in Mali formed a new non-state armed group with the intent to defend the Fulani people against abuses by both AQIM associates and Malian government security forces.
The new militia may limit AQIM's influence among the Fulani in the short term. The militia's establishment risks inflaming tensions between the Fulani and Mali’s dominant Bambara ethnicity. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
Citations & Links
Emirati-backed al Hizam security forces lack the manpower and funding to gain support among tribal sheikhs and officials in southern Yemen, which will hinder their effectiveness in countering al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Abyani tribal leaders called on the Hadi government to provide security, but poor coordination and corruption among local commanders will prevent al Hizam forces from doing so. Al Hizam forces may expand into neighboring Shabwah governorate, likely diverting resources away from Abyan and further exacerbating the security vacuum. (Related reading: A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen)
Citations & Links
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is hindering the Pakistani government’s census-taking process in order to de-legitimize Pakistani institutions and increase its support among ethnic Pashtuns.
A TTP suicide bomber attacked an armored vehicle carrying soldiers involved in census-taking efforts near Lahore, Punjab Province, Pakistan. The Pakistani census is not popular among Pashtuns, who fear that it will under-represent Pashtun population growth and allow ethnic Punjabis to preserve their dominance in the Pakistani National Assembly.
