Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 14 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Astan Quds Razavi Foundation Head Ebrahim Raisi registered for the May 2017 presidential elections.
Former Parliamentarian Alireza Zakani registered for the presidential elections. Registration closes on April 15. Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Kazem Sedighi implicitly criticized the Rouhani administration during his Friday prayer sermon. He targeted, among other issues, the administration’s involvement in a scandal in 2016 in which leaks revealed that officials had been receiving exorbitant salaries. Officials have renewed their criticism of the Rouhani administration’s involvement in the salary scandal issue leading up to the presidential elections, including Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani.
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Yemeni tribal militias mobilized against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Shabwah governorate in eastern Yemen.
Shabwani tribal leaders indicated that they would take action against AQAP following a series of U.S. airstrikes in early March. A tribal militia ambushed AQAP militants, killing one, in central Shabwah governorate. Hadi government and Saudi-led coalition forces lack the manpower and funding to capitalize on anti-AQAP tribal mobilization, however. (Related reading: A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen)
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Al Shabaab may attempt to target U.S. military personnel in Mogadishu in response to the deployment of dozens of American ground troops in Somalia.
Troops from the 101st Airborne Division arrived in Mogadishu on April 2. U.S. forces will support the training and logistical coordination of SNA and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces fighting against al Shabaab. The militant group conducted multiple attacks in Mogadishu in the past week as a preemptive measure against planned U.S. and SNA military operations. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
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The Nigerian government remains incapable of defeating Boko Haram in the near term despite robust foreign support and Boko Haram’s internal fragmentation.
April 14 marks the three-year anniversary of Boko Haram’s kidnapping of 276 girls from Chibok town, northeastern Nigeria, which sparked widespread international support for an anti-Boko Haram campaign. The Nigerian government continues to claim victory over Boko Haram, but the counterinsurgency operation has stalemated due to famine, internal political divisions, and a poor economy. Boko Haram-Barnawi is capitalizing on this stalemate by building rapport with disaffected civilians in northeastern Nigeria. The Nigerian government will struggle to counter Boko Haram-Barnawi as it becomes more embedded in the local population.
The United States is expanding its military footprint in Tunisia.
Local Tunisia media reported that NATO’S “Tunisian Intelligence Fusion Center,” which will serve as a central hub for intelligence collection and sharing, is nearly completed. The U.S. Department of Defense deployed unmanned aerial vehicles and personnel to a military facility in Tunisia in early 2016. A presence in Tunisia will improve U.S. intelligence capabilities in the Maghreb region.
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Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar may be open to participating in the UN-backed political process in order to gain support from Western powers.
Haftar met with head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, Martin Kobler, after refusing to meet with Kobler for over a year. Haftar may be presenting himself as willing participant in the political dialogue to legitimize his military leadership in Libya. He will continue to pursue a military solution to the Libyan conflict, which includes the LNA’s current campaign to seize oil and military sites in southwestern Libya. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America's Losing Strategy in Libya.)
