Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from May 2 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) frames its operations against Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen as in defense of innocent Muslims in order to gain popular support.
AQAP released a video criticizing reported illegal detentions by al Hizam forces and characterizing an AQAP attack as reprisal for the detentions. This narrative, combined with AQAP’s claim to fight al Houthi-Saleh forces in central Yemen, could increase its support among Yemenis in areas that lack access to government services. [Related reading: AQAP Expanding behind Yemen's Frontlines]
Citations & Links
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) may be preparing to exercise its new authority to conduct offensive strikes against al Shabaab.
U.S. military planners coordinated with NGOs and aid workers to reduce the risk of civilian casualties. U.S. AFRICOM commander General Thomas Waldhauser also met with Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo in Mogadishu to discuss efforts to counter al Shabaab. The Trump administration declared parts of Somalia an area of active hostilities and reduced operational restrictions on U.S. airstrikes in the country on March 30. U.S. military forces have not yet acted under the new rules of engagement. [Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?]
Citations & Links
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb-affiliated militants expanded their attack zone in western Mali.
Suspected Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) militants conducted a complex attack against a Malian army convoy in Segou region in west-central Mali. If confirmed, this attack would indicate that JNIM is expanding westward. The Macina Liberation Front, a JNIM affiliate that has operated in this area in the past, may have facilitated the attack. [Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat]
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed its first attack in Algeria since March 2016.
Citations & Links
Citations & Links
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar may participate in negotiations to solve the Libyan crisis, but major issues remain unresolved.
Haftar met Government of National Accord (GNA) head Fayez al Serraj for the first time since January 2016. The two leaders agreed on several amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement, including the abolition of an article that guarantees civilian control over the military. Haftar seeks to remain Commander in Chief of the Libyan Armed Forces. Haftar’s opponents will oppose this amendment in negotiations and possibly with force. [Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya.]
