Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 18 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Iran may increase its investment in the al Houthi movement in response to a change in U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition.
The al Houthi-Saleh bloc took a more aggressive stance against the Saudi-led coalition since the start of 2017, notably with a remote-controlled small-boat attack against a Saudi frigate in early February. Iranian facilitation is likely responsible for an uptick in al Houthi-Saleh ballistic missile launches in 2017. Iranian assistance allows al Houthi-Saleh forces to project power into the Red Sea by attacking Saudi-led coalition vessels. U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis indicated that the U.S. will continue to invest in Saudi Arabia to counter Iranian influence in the Gulf. (Related reading: Warning Update: Iran's Hybrid Warfare in Yemen)
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab maintains a consistent tempo of attacks in Mogadishu. The group fired mortars in Mogadishu for two consecutive days.
Al Shabaab fired artillery toward Villa Somalia during a meeting of top government and security officials on April 18. Al Shabaab militants also fired mortars at Aden Adde International Airport in Mogadishu on April 17. Al Shabaab seeks to take control of terrain in Lower Shabelle region, near Mogadishu, by conducing simultaneous military operations and humanitarian aid campaigns. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
Citations & Links
The al Qaeda associate Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) increased its operational tempo against military targets in Mali.
JNIM militants attacked an elite Malian Red Beret paratrooper unit in Gourma-Rharous in Timbuktu region. French air support repelled the militants after they captured several Malian army vehicles. JNIM also attacked a UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) convoy on the same day on the Aguelhok-Tessalit road in Kidal region.
Citations & Links
The Libyan National Army (LNA) may be strengthening its ties to Misratan militias to draw them away from backing the Government of National Accord (GNA).
An advisor to LNA commander Khalifa Haftar stated that the LNA has social and military contracts with Misratans. The GNA depends on the weak support of several militias for military support. The LNA may be trying to appeal to militias aligned with the GNA in order to advance its attack on southwestern Libya and diminish any military support for the GNA. This would make it easier for the LNA to enter Tripoli in the short term, one of Haftar’s goals in advancing westward in Libya.
Citations & Links
The spokesman of Jamatul Ahrar (JuA), a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) splinter group, surrendered himself to Pakistani security forces.
Citations & Links
The Judiciary’s open case against former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may complicate his presidential run.
Judiciary Spokesman Mohseni Ejei announced that the Judiciary has open cases on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his former deputy, Hamid Baghaei, who was arrested on corruption charges in 2015. The Guardian Council may be able to disqualify Ahmadinejad on the grounds of the numerous instances of corruption throughout his administration.
Former members of Ahmadinejad’s cabinet criticized Ahmadinejad’s decision to run for re-election.
Former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Mohammad Hossein Safar Herendi alluded to the 2009 Green Movement as evidence that Ahmadinejad would do “irreparable damage” in the 2017 elections. Likewise, Former Ministry of Information and Security (MOIS) Head Haidar Moslehi warned that the enemies of Iran would attempt to use populist agendas to attain political power. Other political and military officials criticized Ahmadinejad for following a “deviant current” in order to weaken the clergy.
