Critical Threats Today

Tribal, religious, and local leaders met in Abyan in southern Yemen on April 1 to discuss the effect of the intensified campaign against AQAP on the local population. They issued a statement denouncing all forms of terrorism, but also denounced the bombing campaign. The tribal leaders called on Hadi’s government to assume responsibility for the counterterrorism mission in Abyan in order to protect civilians. AQAP has had freedom of movement within Abyan governorate. (Related reading: Targeting AQAP: U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen)

Rouhani dismissed allegations that there is “distance” between his administration and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani stressed that his administration “is subject to” Khamenei and is “proud” of its “solidarity and unity” with the Supreme Leader. Rouhani has worked to de-escalate the tensions between himself and Khamenei over the former’s implementation of the Resistance Economy doctrine ahead of the May presidential elections. Rouhani has maintained a positive relationship with Khamenei during his presidency, however. Rouhani’s continued relationship with Khamenei is essential to the survival of his presidency.

Al Shabaab militants seized Elbur town, located 200 miles northeast of Mogadishu, without encountering resistance from Somali or AMISOM forces. Al Shabaab will continue to advance in regions of central Somalia where AMISOM no longer operates. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)

Representatives of the two major coalitions of non-state armed groups in northern Mali recommended that the Malian government open negotiations with the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) associates Ansar al Din and the Macina Liberation Front. The Malian government is unlikely to consider such negotiations, setting conditions for a potential breakdown in relations between the Malian government and non-state armed groups in northern Mali. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)

GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj stated that LNA commander Khalifa Haftar is the commander in chief of the Libyan army. Serraj is willing to recognize Haftar as the legitimate military authority in Libya in order to appeal to the LNA-aligned House of Representatives (HoR), which has the power to officially recognize the GNA as Libya’s governing entity. The HoR may also press Haftar to participate in the Libyan political process, which he has avoided. Serraj would also benefit from the LNA’s military support in order to break its reliance on Ansar al Sharia-aligned militias. Haftar is unlikely to ally with the GNA, however, and will continue to pursue a military solution while he remains in a position of strength. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)