Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 7 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Iran’s reaction to the U.S. airstrikes on Syria’s Shayrat Airbase reflects its larger effort to delegitimize the U.S. as a partner in the fight against terrorism.
Iranian officials framed the U.S. airstrikes as contrary to international efforts to defeat terrorism in Syria. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused the U.S. of “fighting on the same side” as al Qaeda and ISIS. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the international affairs advisor to Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, stated that the airstrikes show that the fight against ISIS is “still” not America’s top priority.
Iranian officials continued to push the regime’s narrative that its coalition with Russia and Syria is the true champion for countering terrorism in the region.
Head of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi stressed that Iran’s response to airstrikes will occur within the framework of its relationship with Russia and Syria, and stated that “Russia and Iran will not sit quietly in the face of acts which are contrary to the region’s interests.” Officials’ reactions did not indicate that Iran intends to escalate immediately in response to the U.S. airstrikes.
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The al Houthi-Saleh bloc condemned the April 6 U.S. strike on an Assad regime airbase in Syria.
Al Houthi-Saleh political leadership voiced support for the Syrian government against “American aggression” and accused the U.S. of working alongside al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, and Israel. Iran may increase its support for al Houthi-Saleh forces in Yemen in response to the April 6 strike as part of a regional strategy to counter U.S. and Saudi influence. (Related reading: Warning Update: Iran's Hybrid Warfare in Yemen)
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Al Shabaab will continue to confront the Somali Federal Government in a renewed war for control over the country.
The militant group responded to President Farmajo’s declaration of war by firing mortar shells into Mogadishu on April 7. Al Shabaab officials dismissed the war declaration and the president’s offer of amnesty. The Somali National Army is preparing for an operation to secure the capital, Mogadishu, where al Shabaab militants have intensified a campaign of mass-casualty attacks and assassinations in recent months.
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Boko Haram-Barnawi, the ISIS-recognized faction of Boko Haram, is becoming the dominant Salafi-jihadi group in Nigeria.
Boko Haram-Barnawi militants conducted an ambush and raided a town previously dominated by the rival Boko Haram-Shekau faction on April 6. The Nigerian Air Force degraded Boko Haram-Shekau’s operational capabilities in an assault on the group's alleged headquarters in early March. Boko Haram-Barnawi has links to the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and al Shabaab. It poses a greater threat to regional security and U.S. interests in West Africa than Boko Haram-Shekau.
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Competition over Libya’s oil resources will increase conflict and disrupt oil production.
A militant group based in eastern Libya’s oil crescent region threatened to block the flow of oil to export terminals in a bid for regional control over oil resources. Many eastern Libyans accuse the country’s national institutions, based in western Libya, of profiting unfairly from eastern Libya’s resources. Conflict over control of oil infrastructure will continue as militant groups use Libya’s most important economic resource as leverage to advance their interests. (Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya)
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Al Qaeda-affiliated social media channels issued anti-American statements following the U.S. Tomahawk missile strike on al Shayrat airfield near Homs, Syria on April 6.
Al Qaeda social media accounts claimed that the strikes are an attempt to obfuscate America’s true intentions in Syria. The social media channels also pointed to communications between the U.S., Russia, and the Assad regime as evidence that the U.S. remains an enemy of Muslims.
