Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from April 12 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Local counterterrorism partners against al Qaeda in Yemen may pause operations until they receive requested support from the internationally recognized Yemeni government of Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Two Emirati-backed al Hizam commanders in Abyan governorate resigned in a one-week period, citing unpaid salaries and the inability of local commanders to coordinate. The al Hizam force conducts the counter-AQAP operations in Hadi government-administered territory in southern Yemen. The Hadi government is taking steps to mitigate its command and control problems but has not presented a clear plan to pay salaries. It is not yet clear whether the Hizam units will continue operations. (Related reading: AQAP Expanding behind Yemen's Frontlines)
Citations & Links
Al Shabaab increased its operational tempo in Mogadishu to pre-empt the planned expansion of U.S. and Somali military operations.
An al Shabaab statement characterized recent mass-casualty attacks in Mogadishu as part of a “proactive step” against Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s April 6 declaration of war against al Shabaab. The statement also references U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to expand U.S. military authority to conduct operations in Somalia. Al Shabaab conducted two suicide attacks in Mogadishu on April 9 and 10, one of which targeted the new commander of the Somali National Army (SNA). (Related reading: U.S. Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
Citations & Links
Boko Haram-Barnawi, the ISIS-recognized faction of Boko Haram, may be activating a network capable of attacking Western targets in central and southern Nigeria.
Nigerian domestic security services arrested a Boko Haram-Barnawi cell that was planning attacks on the U.S. and UK diplomatic missions in Abuja and Lagos. The cell comprised of nodes in four states in the Middle Belt region and included members of Ansaru, an al Qaeda-linked Boko Haram splinter group with ties to Boko Haram-Barnawi’s second in command, Mamman Nur. Nur very likely used this same network when he masterminded an SVBIED attack on the UN Headquarters in Abuja in 2011. Nur is consolidating his control of Boko Haram-Barnawi and will shift the group to focus on Western targets in Nigeria.
Citations & Links
Chinese investment in Pakistan is generating backlash from Baloch insurgent groups.
The Balochistan Republican Army (BRA), secular, secessionist insurgent group, detonated a remote-controlled IED in Gwadar, Balochistan Province, Pakistan, injuring three people. The Balochistan Republican Army stated that it will attack Pakistani state officials for using the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to plunder Balochistan’s resources. The Chinese government approved several new CPEC infrastructure projects shortly before the attack. Balochi separatists have maintained an on-and-off insurgency for many years. It is too soon to tell if this attack is part of a re-emergence of serious Balochi opposition to Islamabad.
