Critical Threats Today
A regular summary of al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa as well as major events in Iran.
These are the major events from March 30 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Conservative politicians continued to criticize President Hassan Rouhani’s economic record in order to undermine him ahead of the May presidential elections.
Former Parliamentarian Alireza Zakani claimed the Rouhani administration has failed to produce a “specific development program” for Iran in the period following the nuclear deal. Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Hashim Bathaei and Rostam Ghassemi, a former oil minister under hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, similarly criticized Rouhani’s lack of economic progress. Zakani and Ghassemi are both on the shortlist of candidates to represent the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces in the May elections. The Popular Front seeks to overcome conservatives’ historic inability to unify by selecting a single conservative challenger to President Rouhani. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent criticism of Rouhani’s failure to implement the Resistance Economy doctrine adequately has encouraged Rouhani’s conservative opponents to target Rouhani’s economic record more harshly.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson decided to lift pre-conditions for the sale of 19 F-16 fighter jets and other arms to Bahrain.
The Trump administration seeks to confront Iran’s expanded influence in the Middle East. The Obama administration had set human rights assurances as a condition for the sale because of the Bahraini regime’s crackdown on majority Shia opposition groups. The sale signals the likelihood that the U.S. will sell precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia, the sale of which the Obama administration had blocked due to concerns of civilian casualties in Yemen.
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Citations & Links
Air strikes targeting al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) may degrade the group’s capabilities, but are not sufficient to defeat it.
U.S. forces conducted four to six strikes targeting AQAP militants in Ma’rib, Shabwah, and Abyan governorates between March 29 and 30. AQAP withdrew temporarily from the frontline against al Houthi-Saleh forces in al Bayda after a barrage of U.S. airstrikes in early March. AQAP continues to conduct targeted attacks in central and southern Yemen, however. (Related reading: Targeting AQAP: U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen)
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Algerian security forces are cracking down on ISIS-affiliated militant leaders operating in the country.
The Algerian National People’s Army (ANP) killed the reported emir of the northwestern division of the ISIS-affiliated group Jund al Khilafa on March 29. The ANP also announced the death of the reported head of ISIS Wilayat Jaza'ir (Algeria) on March 25 and another Jund al Khilafa commander on March 13. ISIS militants may attempt a retaliatory assassination or improvised explosive device (IED) attack.
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The Libyan House of Representatives may be building ties to Islamist and Salafi organizations in order to gain support from Libyan Islamist groups and conservative countries like Saudi Arabia.
A Salafi group arrested five demonstrators during an event in Benghazi. The Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs of the House of Representatives described the event as sinful and un-Islamic. The HoR-aligned Libyan National Army (LNA) has also been involved in religiously motivated incidents over the past few months, despite the perception of the LNA as a secular, anti-Islamist force. Rising Islamist currents in eastern Libya could derail the already extremely weak political process in Libya and increase the conflict with rival Islamist groups in the West.
